Toward Robust Detections of Nanohertz Gravitational Waves

Abstract

The recent observation of a common red-noise process in pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) suggests that the detection of nanohertz gravitational waves might be around the corner. However, in order to confidently attribute this red process to gravitational waves, one must observe the Hellings-Downs curve—the telltale angular correlation function associated with a gravitational-wave background. This effort is complicated by the complex modeling of pulsar noise. Without proper care, misspecified noise models can lead to false-positive detections. Background estimation using “quasi-resampling” methods such as sky scrambles and phase shifts, which use the data to characterize the noise, are therefore i..